Where in the moth’s territory is the selective force for earlier hatching likely to be weak or possibly detrimental?
Answer
The northernmost edges of its territory.
The intensity of selective pressure regarding larval hatch timing is spatially variable across the Winter Moth’s geographic range. In southern or milder regions experiencing pronounced warming trends, the environmental cue for earlier leaf-out is strong, creating intense pressure for the moth population to advance its own hatching date to maintain synchrony. Conversely, on the northernmost edges of its territory, the spring warming trend might be insufficient or delayed enough that advancing the hatch date offers no benefit, or could even prove detrimental if the advancement causes the larvae to hatch before the still-chilled plants are ready, leading to starvation or mistimed development.

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