How can researchers quantify the fitness reduction in Winter Moth populations due to phenological sorting?

Answer

Based on the number of days of divergence from the optimal hatch time.

The fitness impact resulting from the breakdown of the synchronization between larval emergence and plant leaf-out is directly measurable. Research methodology allows scientists to quantify the negative effect on individual fitness by calculating the extent of the timing error. This quantification is expressed as the number of days the actual hatch time drifts away from the theoretically optimal time required for peak larval feeding success. Even small cumulative lags, such as a few days per decade when tracking warming trends, can result in substantial overall generational fitness reduction, demonstrating the powerful selective pressure exerted by this temporal mismatch.

How can researchers quantify the fitness reduction in Winter Moth populations due to phenological sorting?

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insectevolutionmothWinteradaptation