What significant risk arises if the acceleration of spring warming surpasses the moth's rate of genetic adaptation or dispersal?

Answer

Evolutionary trap leading to population collapse.

An evolutionary trap is a critical scenario where the rate of environmental change outpaces the inherent adaptive capacity of a species. For the Winter Moth, the environmental change is the accelerating rate of spring warming, which shifts the optimal larval feeding window forward. If the population cannot genetically adapt its egg-hatching timing fast enough, or if it cannot disperse quickly to cooler zones where the mismatch is less severe, it falls into this trap. Even if current fitness seems stable under moderate warming, exceeding the threshold of adaptive capacity carries the significant risk of eventual population collapse because generations consistently fail to meet the required phenological synchronization.

What significant risk arises if the acceleration of spring warming surpasses the moth's rate of genetic adaptation or dispersal?

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insectevolutionmothWinteradaptation