According to scientific investigation, what truly determines the width of the black bands on the Woolly Bear?

Answer

The caterpillar's growth stage (instar), nutrition, and age during molting.

The popular folklore suggesting that wider black bands predict harsher winters lacks concrete scientific support. In reality, the coloration pattern, including the relative width of the black and brown bands, is primarily determined by the larval instar—the stage of development achieved when the caterpillar sheds its skin. Factors influencing this molt, such as the quality of nutrition available and the caterpillar's overall age leading up to that specific shedding event, dictate the resulting pattern, not future weather prognostication.

According to scientific investigation, what truly determines the width of the black bands on the Woolly Bear?
insectevolutionlarvawoolly bearcaterpillar