What mechanism does the 'plasticity-first' hypothesis propose could simultaneously create specialized, less fertile females and fully developed females in an ancestral wasp?

Answer

Co-option of pre-existing phenotypic plasticity, such as seasonal diapause

The 'plasticity-first' hypothesis offers an explanation for the simultaneous emergence of caste differentiation, progressive provisioning, and nest-sharing in the ancestor of paper wasps and yellowjackets. This model suggests that the evolutionary change leveraged existing phenotypic plasticity within the ancestral stock. A prime example is a pre-existing mechanism for seasonal diapause (dormancy) found in bivoltine ancestors. If an external environmental cue, like the start of a cold season or severe resource limitation, triggered this established developmental switch, it could immediately sort the offspring cohort: those entering dormancy might become specialized, less fertile gynes (future queens), while others undergoing full development become the putative workers. This environmental accommodation precedes genetic reinforcement.

What mechanism does the 'plasticity-first' hypothesis propose could simultaneously create specialized, less fertile females and fully developed females in an ancestral wasp?

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